{"id":97999,"date":"2026-10-07T11:58:52","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T09:58:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/?p=97586"},"modified":"2026-10-10T12:48:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-10T10:48:59","slug":"29n-como-interpretar-las-encuestas-electorales-y-hasta-que-punto-predicen-los-resultados","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/29n-como-interpretar-las-encuestas-electorales-y-hasta-que-punto-predicen-los-resultados\/","title":{"rendered":"29N: c\u00f3mo interpretar las encuestas electorales y hasta qu\u00e9 punto predicen los resultados"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1600\" height=\"1066\" src=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/signal-2026-10-07-10-35-03-640_002.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" style=\"object-fit:cover;\" 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style=\"--language-spacing:16px;flex-wrap:nowrap\" data-is-drop-zone=\"true\"><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"language-item\"><div><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\" data-wpml=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/\" aria-label=\"Cambiar a Catal&agrave;\"><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">Catal&agrave;<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"current-language-item\"><div><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">Castellano<\/span><\/div><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"language-item\"><div><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\" data-wpml=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/en\/\" aria-label=\"Cambiar a English\"><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">English<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"language-item\"><div><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\" data-wpml=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/fr\/\" aria-label=\"Cambiar a Fran&ccedil;ais\"><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">Fran&ccedil;ais<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<div class=\"post_single_data wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-10-07T11:58:52+02:00\">7 de octubre de 2026<\/time><\/div><div class=\"taxonomy-category post_single_category wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/categoria\/cultura-digital\/\" rel=\"tag\">Cultura digital<\/a><span class=\"wp-block-post-terms__separator\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/categoria\/sin-categorizar\/\" rel=\"tag\">Sin categorizar<\/a><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El <a href=\"https:\/\/elpais.com\/espana\/2026-10-05\/el-tiron-de-vox-mantiene-al-bloque-de-la-derecha-en-el-50-en-plena-conmocion-por-maricarmen.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">PP guanyaria les eleccions generals segons l\u2019enquesta de 40dB per a <em>El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a> i el <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sigmados.com\/barometro-de-octubre-estimacion-de-voto-para-las-elecciones-generales\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">bar\u00f2metre de Sigma Dos per a <em>El Mundo<\/em><\/a>. Per\u00f2 el <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cis.es\/documents\/d\/guest\/es3577mar_A-pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">sondeig de setembre del Centro de Investigaciones Sociol\u00f3gicas (CIS) situava el PSOE com a primera for\u00e7a<\/a>. Tres enquestes, dues conclusions diferents. Com s\u2019explica aquesta diverg\u00e8ncia en les prediccions?<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les enquestes electorals s\u00f3n en un element habitual del debat pol\u00edtic i medi\u00e0tic, per\u00f2 tamb\u00e9 una font d\u2019interpretacions diverses i, en alguns casos, de desinformaci\u00f3. Com s\u2019ha de llegir una enquesta electoral? Qu\u00e8 vol dir exactament la intenci\u00f3 de vot? Quin marge de fiabilitat tenen les estimacions? I com podem detectar una enquesta inventada? <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/nosaltres\/metodologia-com-funciona-verificat\/#:~:text=o%20la%20manipulen.-,T%E2%80%99ho%20expliquem,-Contrastem%20la%20informaci%C3%B3\"><strong>T\u2019ho expliquem!<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Les enquestes s\u00f3n una eina m\u00e9s, no una predicci\u00f3 exacta del futur<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les enquestes electorals ocupen un lloc central en la cobertura de qualsevol proc\u00e9s electoral. Ja siguin sondejos institucionals, com els del Centre d\u2019Estudis d\u2019Opini\u00f3 (CEO), en \u00e0mbit catal\u00e0, o el Centro de Investigacioens Sociol\u00f3gicas (CIS), a escala estatal, els elaborats per mitjans de comunicaci\u00f3 o els encarregats pels mateixos partits, els seus resultats marquen el debat p\u00fablic i alimenten tant l\u2019agenda informativa com les converses durant la campanya.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aquests sondejos permeten prendre el pols a l\u2019opini\u00f3 de l\u2019electorat en un moment concret. Quan parlem d\u2019\u201cintenci\u00f3 de vot\u201d, ens referim al partit o candidat que una persona afirma que votaria si les eleccions se celebressin en el moment que li ho pregunten. \u00c9s, per tant, una fotografia del que pensa la ciutadania amb dret a vot quan respon el q\u00fcestionari, i no una predicci\u00f3 m\u00e0gica del que necess\u00e0riament acabar\u00e0 fent davant les urnes.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A partir d\u2019aquestes dades, les enquestes tamb\u00e9 poden elaborar una estimaci\u00f3 de vot i projectar com es podria traduir en escons. En aquest c\u00e0lcul intervenen diversos factors, com el comportament electoral anterior, la participaci\u00f3 prevista o la distribuci\u00f3 territorial del vot. Per aix\u00f2, un determinat percentatge de vots no es correspon autom\u00e0ticament amb el mateix percentatge de diputats.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I \u00e9s aqu\u00ed on cal tenir en compte una q\u00fcesti\u00f3 fonamental: el marge d\u2019error. Les enquestes treballen amb una mostra de la poblaci\u00f3 i, per tant, els seus resultats estan subjectes a un cert grau d\u2019incertesa. El marge d\u2019error indica fins a quin punt els resultats podrien variar si es consult\u00e9s una altra mostra de caracter\u00edstiques similars. Per exemple, quan es van convocar les eleccions generals del 2023, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cis.es\/documents\/d\/guest\/es3410mar_a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">el bar\u00f2metre del CIS situava el PSOE per damunt del PP<\/a>, per\u00f2 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boe.es\/buscar\/doc.php?id=BOE-A-2023-18907\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">les urnes van deixar a Pedro S\u00e1nchez en segon lloc, a un punt i mig del PP<\/a>. En les estimacions d\u2019escons, aquests marges d\u2019erros haurien d\u2019estar indicats, com a senyal d\u2019enquestes fiables.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aix\u00f2 vol dir que les estimacions d\u2019escons no s\u2019han de llegir com una fotografia exacta del que sortir\u00e0 de les urnes, sin\u00f3 com una aproximaci\u00f3 als escenaris possibles.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per aix\u00f2, una altra manera d\u2019apropar-se a les enquestes \u00e9s mirar-les de manera conjunta, en lloc de fixar-se en un \u00fanic sondeig. Algunes cap\u00e7aleres elaboren meta-estimacions que agrupen els resultats de diverses enquestes per obtenir una tend\u00e8ncia m\u00e9s estable. \u00c9s el cas de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/europe-poll-of-polls\/spain\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><em>Politico<\/em><\/a>, que calcula una estimaci\u00f3 a partir del conjunt de sondejos disponible que segueixen criteris de rigorositat.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u201cLa cuina d\u2019enquestes\u201d: \u00e9s fiable?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quan es parla de la \u201ccuina\u201d de les enquestes, sovint es fa servir el terme per q\u00fcestionar-ne els resultats, com si les empreses demosc\u00f2piques poguessin alterar les dades al seu gust. Per\u00f2 cuinar una enquesta \u00e9s, en realitat, un pas necessari per convertir les respostes directes dels entrevistats en una estimaci\u00f3 de vot. A partir de les dades recollides, les empreses apliquen models estad\u00edstics, correccions i ponderacions que tenen en compte factors com el record de vot o la participaci\u00f3. Cada empresa t\u00e9 el seu propi m\u00e8tode, amb models m\u00e9s o menys precisos. La clau, per tant, no \u00e9s si una enquesta est\u00e0 \u201ccuinada\u201d, que \u00e9s un pas necessari, sin\u00f3 com s\u2019ha fet aquesta cuina i com gestiona la incertesa dels resultats.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Tamb\u00e9 es colen enquestes falses<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les enquestes falses s\u00f3n una desinformaci\u00f3 habitual en xarxes socials, i serveixen per generar missatges positius o negatius cap a determinats partits, basant-se en projeccions inventades. Per exemple, en la darrera setmana, ja amb un clima preelectoral sobrevolant la pol\u00edtica espanyola, han circulat <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/encuesta-falsa-psoe-larazon\/\">enquestes que donen la vict\u00f2ria al PSOE, per\u00f2 que s\u00f3n falses<\/a>.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/las-redes-amplifican-las-encuestas-falsas-te-explicamos-como-no-caer-en-sondeos-manipulados\/#:~:text=Com%20podem%20saber%20si%20una%20enquesta%20%C3%A9s%20fiable%3F\">Per aix\u00f2 \u00e9s important saber detectar-les<\/a>. El primer pas \u00e9s comprovar d\u2019on surt l\u2019enquesta: qui l\u2019ha elaborat, quan s\u2019ha fet i si se\u2019n publica la fitxa t\u00e8cnica, amb informaci\u00f3 com la mida de la mostra, la metodologia utilitzada i el marge d\u2019error. Tamb\u00e9 \u00e9s recomanable comprovar si el sondeig ha estat publicat per altres mitjans o si apareix al web de l\u2019empresa demosc\u00f2pica. Si aquestes dades no hi s\u00f3n o l\u2019enquesta nom\u00e9s circula a trav\u00e9s de les xarxes socials, cal desconfiar-ne; podria ser una enquesta manipulada o, directament, inventada.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Les dades certes tamb\u00e9 poden manipular<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La desinformaci\u00f3 no sempre parteix d\u2019inventar una enquesta o una dada. Tamb\u00e9 es poden agafar enquestes i dades reals i treure-les de context, confondre qu\u00e8 mesuren, presentar nom\u00e9s una part dels resultats o donar-los una interpretaci\u00f3 que les dades no sostenen. Ho hem vist, per exemple, quan s\u2019ha afirmat que <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/falso-9-porciento-poblacion-catalana-favor-referendum-romero\/\">els catalans no donen suport a un refer\u00e8ndum<\/a>, que <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/no-hay-datos-para-afirmar-que-el-70-de-los-espanoles-odia-a-los-catalanes-y-el-informe-de-icip-y-esade-no-lo-refleja\/\">el 70% dels espanyols \u201codia els catalans\u201d<\/a>. Tamb\u00e9 hem vist gr\u00e0fics maldimensionats com quan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/este-grafico-erc-exagera-creacion-empleo-catalunya-ignora-diferencias-poblacion-madrid\/\">ERC va exagerar la creaci\u00f3 d\u2019ocupaci\u00f3 i la producci\u00f3 industrial a Catalunya<\/a> o quan els <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/un-grafico-de-los-comunes-sobredimensiona-su-propuesta-de-aumento-del-salario-minimo\/\">Comuns van sobredimensionar la seva proposta de salari m\u00ednim<\/a>. S\u00f3n casos en qu\u00e8 una dada o una enquesta real es presenta de manera enganyosa, portant a una conclusi\u00f3 equivocada.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des del projecte educatiu de Verificat, Desfake, <a href=\"https:\/\/desfake.cat\/capsula\/nombres-que-enganyen-com-llegir-entre-dades\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">es treballa precisament com interpretar les dades i detectar aquestes formes de desinformaci\u00f3<\/a>. Entre altres coses, es proposa preguntar-nos quina \u00e9s la font, com s\u2019han obtingut les dades i quin \u00e9s el seu context.<\/p>\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Article elaborat per Mariona Pina Herrero i editat per Alba Tobella, Ona Sindreu i Ruth P\u00e9rez Castro.<\/em><\/p>\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column97580_087f67-0f\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-left has-white-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-1\">Subscriu-te al butllet\u00ed de Desfake<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left has-white-color has-text-color has-link-color wp-elements-2 wp-block-paragraph\">Descobreix eines i consells pr\u00e0ctics per combatre la desinformaci\u00f3 a l\u2019aula. T\u2019ajudem a dotar-te de recursos efectius per ensenyar als teus alumnes a identificar la informaci\u00f3 falsa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons button_white is-content-justification-left is-layout-flex wp-container-core-buttons-is-layout-63375db1 wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/desfake.cat\/newsletter\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Subscriu-te<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La intenci\u00f3n de voto es una fotograf\u00eda del momento en que se hace el sondeo y no una previsi\u00f3n exacta del resultado futuro<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":98033,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24,3],"tags":[591],"class_list":["post-97999","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cultura-digital","category-sin-categorizar","tag-encuestas","vc-legacy-post"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97999","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/53"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97999"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97999\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99677,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97999\/revisions\/99677"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}