{"id":93137,"date":"2026-03-31T14:50:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T15:50:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/?p=93137"},"modified":"2026-03-31T15:03:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T16:03:53","slug":"no-es-una-encuesta-real-cuidado-con-esta-estimacion-que-situa-a-alianca-catalana-en-segunda-posicion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/no-es-una-encuesta-real-cuidado-con-esta-estimacion-que-situa-a-alianca-catalana-en-segunda-posicion\/","title":{"rendered":"No es una encuesta real: cuidado con esta estimaci\u00f3n que sit\u00faa a Alian\u00e7a Catalana en segunda posici\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure class=\"wp-block-post-featured-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"750\" height=\"446\" src=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/portada_enquesta_bo.jpg\" class=\"attachment-post-thumbnail size-post-thumbnail wp-post-image\" alt=\"Captura del tweet.\" style=\"object-fit:cover;\" 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.components-toggle-group-control-option-base[role=radio]:focus{color:#2f7d92;outline:2px solid #2f7d92}.ant-slider .ant-slider-handle:not(.ant-tooltip-open){background-color:#2f7d92 !important;border-color:#373737}.ant-slider:hover .ant-slider-handle:not(.ant-tooltip-open),.ant-slider .ant-slider-handle:focus{background-color:#373737 !important;border-color:#2f7d92}.wpml-ls-typography-panel .components-panel__body .ant-col{margin-bottom:12px}.wpml-ls-fontSize-control div[aria-label=\"Font size\"]{margin-bottom:12px}.wpml-ls-fontSize-control .wpml-ls-fontLetterSpacing-control{display:grid;place-items:center;align-self:center}\n<\/style><div id=\"\" class=\"wpml-language-switcher-block is-layout-flex is-responsive has-child-selected wp-block-navigation language_post\"><div class=\"block-editor-block-list__block wp-block wp-block-navigation-item has-link has-child wp-block-navigation-submenu\"><div id=\"\" class=\"\"><ul class=\"horizontal-list  hasSpacing isHorizontal\" style=\"--language-spacing:16px;flex-wrap:nowrap\" data-is-drop-zone=\"true\"><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"language-item\"><div><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\" data-wpml=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/\" aria-label=\"Cambiar a Catal&agrave;\"><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">Catal&agrave;<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"current-language-item\"><div><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">Castellano<\/span><\/div><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"language-item\"><div><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\" data-wpml=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/en\/\" aria-label=\"Cambiar a English\"><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">English<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li class=\"wp-block-navigation-item \" data-wpml=\"language-item\"><div><a class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__content\" data-wpml=\"link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/fr\/\" aria-label=\"Cambiar a Fran&ccedil;ais\"><span data-wpml=\"label\" data-wpml-label-type=\"native\" class=\"wp-block-navigation-item__label \">Fran&ccedil;ais<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"post_single_data wp-block-post-date\"><time datetime=\"2026-03-31T14:50:05+02:00\">31 de marzo de 2026<\/time><\/div>\n\n<div class=\"taxonomy-category post_single_category wp-block-post-terms\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/category\/verificaciones\/politica-verificaciones\/\" rel=\"tag\">Pol\u00edtica<\/a><span class=\"wp-block-post-terms__separator\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/category\/verificaciones\/soroll-verificaciones\/\" rel=\"tag\">Ruido<\/a><span class=\"wp-block-post-terms__separator\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/category\/verificaciones\/\" rel=\"tag\">Verificaciones<\/a><\/div>\n\n<style>.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column93137_fab83f-ad box_post_summary\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\"><style>.kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae > .kt-row-column-wrap{align-content:start;}:where(.kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae > .kt-row-column-wrap) > .wp-block-kadence-column{justify-content:start;}.kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae > .kt-row-column-wrap{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);row-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-md, 2rem);padding-top:0px;padding-bottom:0px;grid-template-columns:repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));}.kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae > .kt-row-layout-overlay{opacity:0.30;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae > .kt-row-column-wrap{grid-template-columns:repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae > .kt-row-column-wrap{grid-template-columns:minmax(0, 1fr);}}<\/style><div class=\"kb-row-layout-wrap kb-row-layout-id93137_b057cd-ae alignnone wp-block-kadence-rowlayout\"><div class=\"kt-row-column-wrap kt-has-2-columns kt-row-layout-equal kt-tab-layout-inherit kt-mobile-layout-row kt-row-valign-top\">\n<style>.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column93137_c0ff60-3a\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 se ha dicho?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Que el PSC ser\u00eda la primera fuerza en el Parlament de Catalunya con 36 diputados, seguido de Alian\u00e7a Catalana, con 23 diputados.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<style>.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col,.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{border-top-left-radius:0px;border-top-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-right-radius:0px;border-bottom-left-radius:0px;}.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col{column-gap:var(--global-kb-gap-sm, 1rem);}.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;}.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col > .aligncenter{width:100%;}.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col:before{opacity:0.3;}.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08{position:relative;}@media all and (max-width: 1024px){.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}@media all and (max-width: 767px){.kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08 > .kt-inside-inner-col{flex-direction:column;justify-content:center;}}<\/style>\n<div class=\"wp-block-kadence-column kadence-column93137_8ac0c4-08\"><div class=\"kt-inside-inner-col\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00bfQu\u00e9 sabemos?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Que la cuenta que hace la predicci\u00f3n no aporta la fuente de los datos ni una ficha t\u00e9cnica que d\u00e9 fiabilidad al pron\u00f3stico. Que el \u00faltimo CEO pronostica la primera posici\u00f3n al PSC (38-40 diputados), seguido de ERC (22-23), y Junts (19-20) y Alian\u00e7a (19-20).<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un usuario de X que hace \u201cestimaciones para elecciones\u201d ha publicado una supuesta \u201cestimaci\u00f3n\u201d sobre unas hipot\u00e9ticas elecciones al Parlament de Catalunya que sit\u00faa a Alian\u00e7a Catalana en segunda posici\u00f3n, pasando de sus actuales 2 esca\u00f1os hasta los 23. En primera posici\u00f3n estar\u00eda el PSC, que conseguir\u00eda 36. La misma cuenta ha publicado estimaciones para cada una de las demarcaciones catalanas. <strong>No es una encuesta real, sino una estimaci\u00f3n de una cuenta de internet que no parte de ning\u00fan sondeo.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La publicaci\u00f3n no indica la fuente de los datos ni incluye una ficha t\u00e9cnica, dos elementos que son clave para medir la fiabilidad de los sondeos, y la cuenta de X tampoco tiene una p\u00e1gina web que desarrolle el contexto de los datos. Las<a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/las-redes-amplifican-las-encuestas-falsas-te-explicamos-como-no-caer-en-sondeos-manipulados\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> encuestas falsas son habituales en redes sociales<\/a>, acumulan centenares de miles de interacciones y generan mensajes positivos o negativos hacia determinados partidos.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/nosotros\/metodologia-como-funciona-verificat\/#:~:text=o%20la%20manipulan.-,Te%20lo%20explicamos,-Contrastamos%20la%20informaci%C3%B3n\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> <strong>\u00a1TE LO EXPLICAMOS!<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote blue is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Una estimaci\u00f3n en redes dice que \u201cel PSC le saca m\u00e1s de 10 puntos a AC, que se convierte en segunda fuerza\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Con una <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/como-hacer-una-busqueda-inversa-de-imagenes\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">b\u00fasqueda inversa de im\u00e1genes<\/a> en Google, hemos podido comprobar que la imagen de la encuesta ha circulado por otras cuentas en redes, como es el caso de un medio de comunicaci\u00f3n de Guip\u00fazcoa que ha compartido el sondeo tanto en Facebook como en Instagram.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La cuenta que ha publicado la estimaci\u00f3n imita la imagen corporativa de <em>Electomania<\/em>, un popular servicio de encuestas en l\u00ednea. Coinciden elementos como el logotipo, muy similar, el color corporativo y los iconos que utiliza para identificar cada partido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"905\" height=\"579\" src=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/portada_enquesta_imatge_cast.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-93138\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/portada_enquesta_imatge_cast.jpg 905w, https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/portada_enquesta_imatge_cast-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/portada_enquesta_imatge_cast-768x491.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 905px) 100vw, 905px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Sin fuente ni ficha t\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La supuesta encuesta que circula por redes no especifica el origen de las fuentes ni una ficha t\u00e9cnica donde se muestren las caracter\u00edsticas estad\u00edsticas de los datos visualizados. Estos dos elementos son clave para medir la fiabilidad de un sondeo, tal como explic\u00f3 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/las-redes-amplifican-las-encuestas-falsas-te-explicamos-como-no-caer-en-sondeos-manipulados\/#:~:text=%C2%BFC%C3%B3mo%20podemos%20saber%20si%20una%20encuesta%20es%20fiable%3F\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a Verificat anteriormente<\/a> el polit\u00f3logo de la Universitat Pompeu Fabra Toni Rodon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Las fichas t\u00e9cnicas sirven para comunicar c\u00f3mo se ha hecho una encuesta. En estas fichas, seg\u00fan apunta Rodon, dos elementos a observar son el margen de error (que no debe superar el 5%) y el tama\u00f1o muestral de cu\u00e1ntas personas se han entrevistado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>El \u00faltimo CEO sit\u00faa a Alian\u00e7a Catalana en cuarta posici\u00f3n<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El \u00faltimo bar\u00f3metro del Centre d\u2019Estudis d\u2019Opini\u00f3 (CEO) de Catalunya, publicado el <a href=\"https:\/\/upceo.ceo.gencat.cat\/wsceop\/9928\/Dossier%20de%20premsa_1145.pdf#page=165\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">pasado mes de noviembre<\/a>, sit\u00faa a Alian\u00e7a Catalana en cuarta posici\u00f3n, con 19 o 20 diputados, muy cerca de Junts, que estar\u00eda en tercera posici\u00f3n, a pesar de que obtendr\u00eda igualmente 19 o 20 diputados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La primera posici\u00f3n la mantendr\u00eda el PSC, con entre 38 y 40 diputados, seguido de ERC, con 22 o 23 diputados. Por detr\u00e1s de Junts y de Alian\u00e7a Catalana quedar\u00edan Vox (13-14), PP (12-13), Comuns (6) y la CUP (3-4).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Las encuestas falsas son habituales en redes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La propagaci\u00f3n de sondeos inventados es una estrategia habitual en las redes sociales para manipular la percepci\u00f3n p\u00fablica hacia determinados partidos. De hecho, no es el primer caso que encontramos encuestas con claros indicios de no ser ver\u00eddicas que dan a Alian\u00e7a Catalana mucha m\u00e1s representaci\u00f3n que la que tiene ahora en el Parlament sin aportar ning\u00fan dato t\u00e9cnico para verificar la fiabilidad del sondeo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Antes de esto, otros verificadores como <em>Newtral<\/em> o <em>Maldita<\/em>, miembros como Verificat de las redes internacionales de verificadores (<a href=\"https:\/\/ifcncodeofprinciples.poynter.org\/signatories\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IFCN<\/a> y <a href=\"https:\/\/members.efcsn.com\/signatories\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">EFCSN<\/a>), tambi\u00e9n han refutado otras encuestas err\u00f3neas en contextos como <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newtral.es\/la-falsa-encuesta-publicada-en-andorra-que-da-82-diputados-a-vox\/20190427\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">las elecciones generales de 2019<\/a>. Tambi\u00e9n circularon durante el confinamiento de abril de 2020 sondeos con nombres de empresas encuestadoras ficticias para dar una <a href=\"https:\/\/maldita.es\/malditobulo\/20200405\/encuesta-falsa-empresa-jp-logistica-victoria-electoral-pp-coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">falsa apariencia de veracidad<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La cuenta que la ha difundido no incluye la fuente de datos ni ninguna ficha t\u00e9cnica que aporte fiabilidad al pron\u00f3stico<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":93136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[266,112,111],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-93137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politica-verificaciones","category-soroll-verificaciones","category-verificaciones","with-featured-image"],"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":266,"label":"Pol\u00edtica"},{"value":112,"label":"Ruido"},{"value":111,"label":"Verificaciones"}]},"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/portada_enquesta_bo.jpg",750,446,false],"author_info":{"display_name":"I\u00f1aki Martinez","author_link":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/author\/inaki\/"},"comment_info":0,"category_info":[{"term_id":266,"name":"Pol\u00edtica","slug":"politica-verificaciones","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":266,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":111,"count":436,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":266,"category_count":436,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Pol\u00edtica","category_nicename":"politica-verificaciones","category_parent":111},{"term_id":112,"name":"Ruido","slug":"soroll-verificaciones","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":112,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":111,"count":673,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":112,"category_count":673,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Ruido","category_nicename":"soroll-verificaciones","category_parent":111},{"term_id":111,"name":"Verificaciones","slug":"verificaciones","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":111,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":1464,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":111,"category_count":1464,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Verificaciones","category_nicename":"verificaciones","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/45"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93137"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93137\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93139,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93137\/revisions\/93139"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.verificat.cat\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}